Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The Auction Squirrel Looking Healthy

Today I took a look at the last 30 ended auctions on The Auction Squirrel, and it looks like they may be making a profit (or close to it!). A few physical products aside, The Squirrel sold 24 gift cards and bidpacks for revenue of $677 (assuming 15% of bids are free) and a total COGS of $550 + $120 for shipping (24 products @ $5 each), for a profit of about $7 (EBITDA). In looking at this estimate I would say that my estimate for number of free bids is too low, meaning the Squirrel is probably not cash flow positive quite yet. I'm also not factoring in all of their fixed costs, mainly hosting the site. I'm also ignoring a promotion The Squirrel is doing which gives winners free bids if the price of the auction goes over $1.00 (Squirrel, why are you torturing me?). And this also ignores the fact that The Squirrel has been bleeding cash the last few weeks and has some serious ground to make up from losses early on. But maybe The Squirrel has passed the lowest point on it's J-curve and is heading toward break-even and then on to more profitable pastures. The holiday season is also coming-up and I'm sure there will be an abundance of people looking to fill Christmas wishes on the cheap this year, so if The Squirrel can make it till then it might be OK.

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